With industrial manufacturing just below consensus (-0.1% vs. 0.0%), we now have the next image of key indicators adopted by the NBER’s Enterprise Cycle Relationship Committee (with heaviest weight on nonfarm payroll employment and private revenue excluding transfers).
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, third launch (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 advance launch, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5/1/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
The most recent Weekly Financial Indicators (for releases by Could 11) signifies a leap above 2% (my guess of pattern), to 2.16%.
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