Continued development (report):
Determine 1 (up to date): GDP (daring black), Could SPF median (mild blue), GDPNow of 5/16 (blue sq.), New York Fed nowcast of 5/17 (inexperienced triangle), St. Louis Fed nowcast of 5/17 (tan sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Supply: BEA 2024Q1 advance, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
Not like the Nov ’23 and Feb ’24 trajectories, the hole between the Feb ’24 and Could ’24 is trivial.
Determine 2: GDP (daring black), Could SPF median (mild blue), February (tan), November 2023 (mild inexperienced), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Supply: BEA 2024Q1 advance, Philadelphia Fed.
The SPF signifies a decreased likelihood of unfavourable q/q GDP development in Q2 and Q3, from 23.9% to 14.4% and 25.6% to 18.7%, respectively.
