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Earlier than Ebrahim Raisi’s sudden loss of life in a helicopter crash, the Iranian president was thought of a shoo-in for a second time period, with elections because of be held subsequent spring.
Each president since 1981 has served the utmost two phrases and the final basic election three years in the past was rigorously orchestrated to make sure Raisi, a protégé of Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had a transparent pathway to victory.
However with the Islamic republic now constitutionally obliged to carry an emergency election inside 50 days, Raisi’s loss of life may push Iran’s tense political rivalry amongst loyalists of the theocratic system to a brand new degree. With underneath two months to arrange and determine which candidates to again, it’s going to additionally take a look at the unity of regime hardliners.
“Hardliners will most likely search a candidate able to balancing their faction following latest political tensions,” stated Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, Iran’s former reformist vice-president. “No vital crises are anticipated till the presidential election, which is anticipated to comply with an identical format to earlier ones.”
Potential candidates are more likely to embody Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the hardline Speaker of parliament who is taken into account near the elite Revolutionary Guards. Throughout three unsuccessful presidential campaigns, he has sought to painting himself as a hands-on politician who will get issues carried out, citing his experiences as a former police chief and mayor of Tehran.
One other who may throw his hat into the ring is Ali Larijani, a hardliner from a distinguished clerical household and a former nuclear negotiator. Nevertheless, he was prevented from operating in 2021 as a part of what was considered because the management’s efforts to clear the sector for Raisi.
First vice-president Mohammad Mokhber will head up the chief department throughout the interim interval earlier than the election. A hardliner near Khamenei after operating the supreme chief’s workplace’s enterprise affairs, he’s one other potential candidate.
When Raisi was elected in 2021, his victory represented the consolidation of regime hardliners’ management over all arms of the state and the marginalisation of moderates and reformists. The ballot was marred by the bottom turnout at a presidential vote because the 1979 Islamic Revolution as greater than half the nation’s eligible voters stayed away, believing the end result a foregone conclusion and expressing their disillusionment with their leaders.
Nonetheless, Raisi’s success was thought of very important for the preparations being made by the management for the eventual succession to a brand new supreme chief, the republic’s final decision-maker.
However in latest months, political infighting within the hardliners’ camp has bubbled to the floor with extra radical figures calling for stricter insurance policies resembling higher restrictions on freedom of expression and even stricter enforcement of girls’s compulsory Islamic costume codes.
Some Iranian analysts believed that Raisi, a hardline cleric and former judicial chief, had softened his stance on social points since turning into president in a bid to bolster his reputation as he was touted as a possible successor to Khamenei.
Others, nonetheless, believed Raisi quietly sided with extra hardline components, in addition to an rising era of ideologues who’ve challenged old-school conservatives. These so-called super-revolutionaries got here to the fore at this yr’s elections for parliament and the Meeting of Consultants, the physique that may select the subsequent supreme chief.
As president, Raisi was additionally confronted with one of many republic’s largest home challenges in many years after mass protests erupted within the wake of the loss of life of Mahsa Amini in police custody. The 22-year-old had been arrested in Tehran for allegedly not sporting her hijab appropriately, and her loss of life sparked probably the most sustained nationwide demonstrations towards the Islamic regime in years.
The authorities launched a crackdown to crush the protests, killing greater than 300 folks, in response to Amnesty Worldwide. However the regime largely turned a blind eye to ladies who refused to put on the hijab, in a realistic transfer meant to ease social tensions.
Some hardliners, nonetheless, felt the federal government was too gentle, and in latest weeks there have been recent crackdowns towards these not protecting their heads with the veil.
The Revolutionary Guards, whose dominance over state affairs elevated after Raisi took the presidency, will affect the political debate throughout the hardliners’ camp.
Some Iranian analysts imagine that the subsequent president may even be near the elite power that oversees sprawling enterprise pursuits, along with being the state’s strongest safety power, and ideologically loyal to the supreme chief.
“We shouldn’t be shocked if the subsequent president will likely be a army determine or has a army background,” stated Saeed Laylaz, a reformist analyst. “Raisi’s loss of life is usually a turning level in Iran’s politics, and will push the nation in the direction of a brand new part through which politics turn into extra inflexible.”
Regime loyalists thought of reasonable or reformist have put apart their variations with hardliners to precise their condolences to Raisi’s household and the management, whereas eulogising about his character because the president’s shock loss of life has introduced collectively rivals throughout the theocratic system.
However few Iranians count on any vital area for them politically on the subsequent election. “I doubt this nationwide solidarity will translate into any political opening for pro-reform forces,” former reformist vice-president Abtahi stated.
