2:00PM Water Cooler 5/31/2024 | bare capitalism

Lower than a half a 12 months to go!

RCP Ballot Averages, Might 24:

A blended bag for Crew Trump, this week with some Swing States (extra right here) Brownian-motioning themselves again towards him, together with Pennsylvania. Not, nevertheless, Michigan, to which Trump paid a go to. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, subsequently dangerous, and a lot of the outcomes are inside the margin of error. If shall be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the decision in Decide Merchan’s courtroom impacts the polling, and if that’s the case, how.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Queens man convicted” [Queens Daily Eagle]. “Former Jamaica Estates resident Donald Trump was convicted by a Manhattan jury on Thursday of 34 counts of falsifying enterprise data in an effort to cowl up a intercourse scandal he feared would spoil his possibilities of profitable the 2016 presidential election. The jury’s verdict, which got here after solely two days of deliberations, makes Trump the primary president from Queens – or anyplace in the USA, for that matter – to change into a felon. The conviction places an finish to the trial in Manhattan Legal Courtroom that started a month and a half in the past, and introduced tons of of journalists and spectators of all stripes to the ageing courthouse at 100 Centre Avenue. The trial was overseen by one other man from the World’s Borough, Justice Juan Merchan, who was raised in Jackson Heights.” • Commentary:

Right, the conviction of Trump is each official and political retribution. When elite lawlessness is rampant, that is what implementing the rule of legislation means. https://t.co/stlxslQDoR

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) Might 31, 2024

A “criminogenic surroundings,” as Invoice Black used to say.

Trump (R): “Prosecutors Bought Trump — However They Contorted the Legislation” [Ellie Honig, New York Magazine]. Price studying fastidiously and in full. “Each of this stuff could be true without delay: The jury did its job, and this case was an ill-conceived, unjustified mess. Positive, victory is the nice deodorant, however a responsible verdict doesn’t make all of it pure and proper…. The district lawyer’s press workplace and its flaks usually proclaim that falsification of enterprise data expenses are ‘commonplace‘…. However once you impose significant search parameters, the reality emerges: The fees in opposition to Trump are obscure, and practically completely unprecedented. In reality, no state prosecutor — in New York, or Wyoming, or anyplace — has ever charged federal election legal guidelines as a direct or predicate state crime, in opposition to anybody, for something. None. Ever…. So, to inflate the fees as much as the lowest-level felony (Class E, on a scale of Class A via E) — and to electroshock them again to life inside the longer felony statute of limitations — the DA alleged that the falsification of enterprise data was dedicated ‘with intent to commit one other crime.’ Right here, in accordance with prosecutors, the ‘one other crime’ is a New York State election-law violation, which in flip incorporates three separate ‘illegal means’: federal marketing campaign crimes, tax crimes, and falsification of nonetheless extra paperwork. — and the decide declined[1] to pressure them to pony up — till proper earlier than closing arguments. (This, of us, is what indictments are for.)” As I’ve been muttering for a while. Extra: “In these key respects, the fees in opposition to Trump aren’t simply uncommon. They’re bespoke, seemingly crafted individually for the previous president and no one else.” That may be known as a invoice of attainder[2].” • Once more, effectively price a learn. NOTES [1] Merchan and Bragg labored “in live performance.” [2] I’ve been pondering laborious in regards to the case structure and concluding that was expertly constructed to result in this end result; the concealment of the “object offense” within the expenses, for instance, confused protection all through and, as Honig factors out, denied the defendant the possibility to organize a protection. I muttered in the present day to Yves about “crafted,” although I don’t suppose I used that work. However a complete liberal Democrat flex-net — I might speculate — together with Bragg and fairly presumably Merchan, labored on this challenge; they did effectively. (On the flex-net, see “Contained in the Off-the-Report Calls Held by Anti-Trump Authorized Pundits.” Authorized eagles, media personalities, former prosecutors. No point out of organs of state safety. Oddly.)

Trump (R): “Article 390 – NY Legal Process Legislation, PRE-SENTENCE REPORTS” [The Law Firm of Andrew M. Stengel]. “S 390.30 Scope of pre-sentence investigation and report…. 2. Bodily and psychological examinations. Each time info is obtainable with respect to the defendant’s bodily and psychological situation, the pre-sentence investigation should embrace the gathering of such info. Within the case of a felony or a category A misdemeanor, or in any case the place an individual below the age of twenty-one is convicted of a criminal offense, .” • Hmm. Not less than for the “New York State Well being Service Corps“: “(c) Designated facility or company shall imply a facility or establishment designated by the Commissioner of Well being, in session with the State Well being Service Corps advisory committee that’s: (1) operated by: …. (iii) the Division of Correctional Companies…,” amongst different entities. It might be good if the workplace of the practitioner doing the examination weren’t a patronage reward (i.e., managed by the Democrat Social gathering), however who can say?

Trump (R): Editors in every single place wrote precisely the identical headline (with a number of variations method decrease within the thread):

Let’s do that. As I’ve stated prior to now, nothing makes an announcement on necessary information near the newspaper entrance web page. Throughout America, nearly each editor went with the easy reality, “Responsible.”
Let’s begin with the largest circulation. /1 pic.twitter.com/7i2Ab6daW4

— Jason Kint (@jason_kint) Might 31, 2024

The thread concludes:

That’s the tip of my tour. After all, I work solely on the way forward for information and leisure and these are newspapers however all the time like to put out the significance of our native markets, a plural press and the way we report historical past throughout them. /20

— Jason Kint (@jason_kint) Might 31, 2024

“The significance of our native markets, a plural press”… and not using a shred of irony! Appears extra like PMC education conduct to me.

* * *

Trump (R): “We Are Beginning to Take pleasure in Hatred” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal]. “However some get pleasure from their hatred—that is the brand new half, and I feel fairly widespread—as a result of it helps them keep away from seeing that they’re concerned in a tragedy. One will probably fail bodily in coming years—he’s failing now—and get replaced by a vp who’s wholly unsuited for the presidency as a result of she is wholly unserious, who has had 4 years to show herself in a baseline method and failed to satisfy even the modest requirements by which vice presidents are judged. The opposite could, on being elected and even earlier than then, be thrown into the slammer for one of many felony expenses in opposition to him, together with these linked to making an attempt to overthrow a democratic nationwide election. It is a tragedy—that that is what we’ve received, these are our decisions. Whenever you’ve received a serious hate on, you don’t have to note.” • Hate as a type of denialism; attention-grabbing idea.

Trump (R): “Trump marketing campaign hauls in $35M, says it broke fundraising report after conviction” [Axios]. “Former President Trump’s marketing campaign stated Friday that it had a $34.8 million windfall after he was convicted of 34 felonies in his New York hush cash trial. The presumptive GOP presidential nominee’s marketing campaign stated the haul was ‘practically double’ its earlier single-day fundraising report on the WinRed platform for Republican donors.” • Woo hoo!

Trump (R): “Karl Rove Warns {That a} Responsible Verdict May Value Trump Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania” [Mediaite]. “Fox Information contributor and veteran political strategist Karl Rove stated {that a} responsible verdict in presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s hush cash trial may value him the important thing swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania on Thursday. Throughout an look on America Experiences, Rove was requested to judge a current NPR/PBS Newshour ballot gauging how voters would possibly react to a conviction. It discovered that 15% of each registered and unbiased voters can be extra more likely to vote for Trump within the case of a responsible verdict, whereas 17% of the previous group and 11% of the latter can be much less more likely to assist him. The remainders in each teams stated a conviction would make no distinction to their choice.” • As Rove factors out, 15% (registered, extra) – 17% (registered, much less) = 2% much less. The margins are too small to cr*p round.

Trump (R): “Guilt Complicated: Trump’s Felony Convictions Are a Huge Political Drawback” [Politico]. “Trump merely can’t beat President Joe Biden relying solely on the votes of people that suppose his authorized travails are a politically motivated rip-off, and who cheer Trump not regardless of his transgressions however due to them…. There are many such individuals — sufficient to energy this era’s most necessary political motion — however nonetheless not sufficient to win the election…. [Clinton’s email scandal resonated] as a result of for many individuals it painted an image of somebody who thought she operated above the principles. The Manhattan conviction, in accordance with operatives in each events, permits Biden to place Trump in the same field. There are two demographic slices he’ll be aiming at with such an enchantment. One is very educated, extremely knowledgeable conventional Republicans, who can reliably be anticipated to vote. They don’t like Trump however are open to voting for him as a result of they regard Biden as too outdated or his administration as too anti-business. The conviction makes it tougher for this group to rationalize a Trump vote as the most effective amongst dangerous alternate options. The opposite is low-information, much less dependable voters. They usually aren’t paying shut consideration to the information, however a giant occasion just like the conviction can penetrate their consciousness in lasting methods. Amongst each teams the argument is much less that Trump is a would-be dictator who may finish democracy. It’s that he’s a self-absorbed agent of chaos who is simply too preoccupied along with his personal troubles to control successfully. In each circumstances, small actions may have giant penalties.” • Besides that “Trump is a would-be dictator who may finish democracy” is a message the Democrats have had the knobs as much as 11 on for months (“What if This Is Our Final Actual Election?”) Can they actually simply flip these knobs all the way down to zero? And switch up the “agent of chaos” knob?

* * *

Biden (D): “What the Biden marketing campaign thinks the Trump verdict means” [CNN]. “The convictions won’t transfer the needle in a serious method within the election, these near the Biden reelection effort advised CNN, however an acquittal may have actually helped Trump – and that makes Thursday’s historic choice a win for the Biden marketing campaign, if solely as a result of it isn’t a loss. A way of despondency had began to creep in from prime supporters and donors in current weeks, as extra moments that reelection marketing campaign strategists had projected would shift the race – the start of the 2024 calendar 12 months, the tip of the Republican primaries, the approaching of spring once they figured extra individuals would take note of Trump’s report—have come and gone with none notable motion within the polls or total dynamics…. However the conviction on 34 counts has reassured a few of their mantra that the extra individuals deal with Trump and the selection forward of them, the higher Biden’s November goes to be – and to push again on the ‘nothing issues’ sensibility that has helped energy Trump via so many different darkish moments over his final 9 years in politics.” • I suppose “nothing issues” is a lowbrow method of claiming nihilism; maybe a praise, in a method.

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden’s issues with youthful voters are obvious, ballot finds” [NPR]. “Voters 18-29 years outdated made up roughly 1 in 6 voters in 2020, and President Biden gained them by greater than 20 factors, in accordance with exit polls. He gained voters below 45, who have been 40% of the voters, by double-digits, too… [T]he newest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist ballot underscores the depth of his issues…. In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Biden and Trump are in a statistical tie, with Biden narrowly forward 50%-48%. He leads by simply 4 factors with voters below 45 and by 6 with Gen Z/Millennials. However when independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, in addition to Inexperienced Social gathering candidate Jill Stein are launched, Biden trails Trump by 4 factors. Trump leads by 6 with Gen Z/Millennials and by 8 with the below 45 group on this situation.” Of these 18-29: “62% have an unfavorable opinion of him, whereas Trump will get a net-positive score — 49%-42%. That’s the very best favorability score for Trump of any of the age teams.

Biden (D): “One clarification for the 2024 election’s greatest thriller” [Eric Levitz, VOX]. “I’ve been toying with a unique concept of the president’s woes, one which makes higher sense of his peculiar demographic weaknesses: Voters with low ranges of belief in society and the political system are shifting rightward. Donald Trump redefined the GOP within the eyes of many, associating the social gathering with a paranoid imaginative and prescient of American life and a populist contempt for the nation’s political system. In response, Democrats rallied to the protection of America’s greatness, norms, and establishments. Because the events polarized on the query of whether or not America was ‘already nice,’ voters with excessive ranges of social belief and confidence within the political system grew to become extra Democratic, whereas these with low social belief and little religion within the authorities grew to become extra Republican. This miniature realignment was obvious in 2016 and 2020, in accordance with some analysts. And there may be some motive to suppose that it might have accelerated over the previous 4 years. If it did, then Biden’s peculiar difficulties with younger, nonwhite, and/or low-propensity voters would make extra sense, as these demographic teams evince unusually little belief of their authorities or fellow Individuals. This concept is merely speculative. It’s according to many information factors however confirmed by none. If true, nevertheless, it doesn’t bode effectively for the Biden marketing campaign.” • Levitz, not unexpectedly, erases Covid; right here I urge that “perception scarring” from mendacity and betrayal in the course of the Covid pandemic led to lowered belief.

Biden (D): “‘A dying empire led by dangerous individuals’: Ballot finds younger voters despairing over US politics” [Semafor (Nippersdad)]. “As a part of the web ballot of 943 18-30-year-old registered voters, Blueprint requested individuals to answer a sequence of questions in regards to the American political system: 49% agreed to some extent that elections within the nation don’t characterize individuals like them; 51% agreed to some extent that the political system within the US ‘doesn’t work for individuals like me;’ and 64% backed the assertion that ‘America is in decline.’ A whopping 65% agreed both strongly or considerably that ‘practically all politicians are corrupt, and earn cash from their political energy’ — solely 7% disagreed. ‘I feel these statements blow me away, the size of those numbers with younger voters,’ Evan Roth Smith, Blueprint’s lead pollster, advised Semafor. ‘Younger voters don’t take a look at our politics and see any good guys. They see a dying empire led by dangerous individuals.’” Importantly: “: 51% of these polled stated they have been happier earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic, 77% stated that the occasion modified the nation for the more serious, and 45% stated they really feel much less linked to mates and acquaintances in contrast with 5 years in the past.” • See touch upon “perception scarring” instantly above.

They knew:

Lately I noticed some Danger evaluation paperwork from CDC on covid from Jan & Feb 2020. They’re attention-grabbing to say the least.

So what’s a Danger Evaluation (RA)?

RA is a proper strategy of analyzing a state of affairs & understanding the hazards of what are you coping with.
1/x

— Dr James Morris (@James___Morris) Might 30, 2024

Alert reader DD threw all the RA type over the transom:

Does make you surprise the place the CDC whistleblowers have been. Is there a tradition of feat at CDC? In that case, it’s distinctive.

Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I’m going to must rethink this fantastically formatted desk. Biobot information is gone, CDC variant information capabilities, ER visits are useless, CDC stopped necessary hospital information assortment, New York Occasions dying information has stopped. (Be aware that the 2 metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have each gone darkish). Ideally I might exchange hospitalization and dying information, however I’m unsure how. I may additionally develop the wastewater part to incorporate (yech) Verily information, H5N1 if I can get it. Solutions and sources welcome. UPDATE I changed the Occasions dying information with CDC information. Amusingly, the URL doesn’t embrace parameters to assemble the tables; one should reconstruct then manually every time. Caltrops abound.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Useless.

[2] (Biobot) Useless.

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, provided that the mannequin fully missed KP.2.

[4] (ER) That is the most effective I can do for now. Not less than information for all the pandemic is offered.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Nonetheless going up, although thankfully no signal of geometric enhance. The NY city space has type; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an necessary entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, and across the nation via air journey)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). That is the most effective I can do for now. Be aware the belief that Covid is seasonal is constructed into the presentation. Not less than information for all the pandemic is offered.

[7] (Walgreens) Going up.

[8] (Cleveland) Going up.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Flattening.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529.

[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED not up.

Stats Watch

Private Revenue: “United States Private Revenue” [Trading Economics]. “US private revenue rose by 0.3% from the earlier month to $23.234 trillion in April of 2024, slowing from a 0.5% enhance within the prior month, in step with market forecasts. Compensation of workers rose by 0.2%, a slight ease from the 0.6% acquire the earlier month, pushed by slower will increase in each wages and salaries (0.2% vs 0.6% in March) and dietary supplements to wages and salaries (0.3% vs 0.4%).” • You say “ease” like that’s an excellent factor.

Manufacturing: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Enterprise Barometer, also referred to as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 35.4 in Might of 2024 from 37.9 within the prior month, sharply lacking market forecasts that ranged from 41 to 42.”

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 42 Impartial (earlier shut: 45 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 51 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 31 at 1:32:37 PM ET.

Information of the Wired

I’m not feeling wired in the present day.

Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From DW:

DW writes: “A Star Magnolia (magnolia stellata) reflecting gentle from the kitchen window, and blooming about two weeks sooner than final 12 months. The birds utilizing the feeder are a tad nonplussed by the blossoms, however are shortly adjusting to them. Coos County, Oregon.” I’m unsure this difficult picture is a whole success, however it’s a neat thought and I embrace it within the hopes that others shall be impressed to experiment with the method.

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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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