Consumption, private earnings ex-transfers, and (for April) manufacturing and commerce trade gross sales.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, third launch (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 advance launch, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5/1/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
