From a lecture ready for “Macroeconomic Coverage” (Spring 2024):
Determine 1: Output hole (black, left scale), CBO projected output hole (pink, left scale), and PCE deflator y/y inflation (teal, proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA 2023Q4 advance, CBO Funds and Financial Outlook, Feb 2024, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
The big improve in inflation appears fairly outsized in comparison with the comparatively small optimistic output hole.
A extra formal argument by Adam Shapiro (SF Fed) right here.
