Core PPI beneath consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).
Determine 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (mild inexperienced). Supply: BLS, BEA by way of FRED, BLS, and creator’s calculations.
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Determine 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (mild inexperienced). Could PCE core for Could is Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 6/13. Supply: BLS, BEA by way of FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Notice that Could statement for core PCE instantaneous inflation incorporates the Cleveland Fed nowcast.
