The DWD launched the Could preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):
Determine 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark sequence (teal), Wisconsin Could Financial Outlook forecast (purple), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.
We’re on track for nonfarm payroll employment vis a vis the Could ’24 forecast, in line with the DWD/BLS. The Philadelphia Fed early benchmark is barely beneath the official (0.4%, 11,500) for April, conserving in thoughts the precise benchmark (versus prolonged forecast) runs by means of December (0.3%, 7900).
On non-public nonfarm payroll employment, there’s no early benchmark verify. Nonetheless, I can use the (seasonally adjusted) adjustments in internet job features from the Enterprise Employment Dynamics to match in opposition to quarterly non-public NFP.
Determine 2: Wisconsin non-public nonfarm payroll employment (black), cumulative Enterprise Employment Dynamics internet job features iterated on 2022Q3 (blue), Wisconsin Could Financial Outlook forecast (purple), all in 000’s, s.a. 2024Q2 non-public NFP common of April and Could. Supply: DWD, BLS, WI DoR.
Lastly, for (the comparatively imprecisely measured) family survey based mostly civilian employment sequence, precise is beneath forecasted by 0.3%.
Determine 3: Wisconsin civilian employment (black), Wisconsin Could Financial Outlook forecast (purple), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: DWD, WI DoR.
Â
