Final week we bought GDP and wages and salaries for Q1, in addition to employment and coincident indicators for Could. With these knowledge, now we have the next image.
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries deflated by nationwide chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (crimson), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and creator’s calculations.
GDP reveals a flattening development by 2024Q1. Nonetheless, most different indicators present continued progress in Q1 and thereafter. Specifically, wages and salaries (at present about 52% of whole earnings, and 46% of GDP) deflated by chained CPI continued to develop.
Each employment measures (CES, CPS primarily based) have been flat since January/February of this 12 months, suggesting a plateauing of employment. Alternatively, the coincident index — primarily based upon further labor market knowledge — reveals continued rise.
In sum, now we have continued blended indications, with progress or sideways trending.
