Again in February 2023, I did a chat with GPT to find out its understanding of provide and demand. I found that it didn’t perceive the idea, however I didn’t blame the AI. As an alternative, I argued that it mirrored a flawed understanding of S&D within the paperwork that GPT was educated on.
Claude 3 was simply launched, and I made a decision to research whether or not AI had progressed in its understanding of S&D. As we’ll see, it has not. I think it’s because AI is proscribed by the standard of the fabric that it trains on, not less than for the second. Maybe sooner or later it is going to be in a position to “suppose for itself”.
I had hoped that Claude 3 would acknowledge that the affect of a value change on consumption will depend on whether or not the value change was brought on by a shift in provide or a shift in demand. It failed:
As I did in February 2023, I specified that I used to be in search of an equilibrium consequence, to make the query much less “tough”. As in 2023, this led to some weird confusion within the reply:
The lower in provide in step 5 is completely tremendous, however the best way Claude causes between steps #3 and #5 is cringeworthy.
I nervous that the phrase “in equilibrium” may need confused Claude, main it to imagine I solely meant beginning in equilibrium. So I repeated the query with language making it clear I meant “stays in equilibrium”:
This can be a bit higher, though it nonetheless misses the essential level that you just can not cause from a value change. Claude had no foundation for assuming the value improve was resulting from a decline in provide.
Curiously, at some stage Claude does “perceive” the fallacy of reasoning from a value change . However right here the time period “perceive” is utilized in roughly the best way a B pupil at a good college understands ideas. They will memorize them and supply solutions on assessments, however typically are unable to use the idea in a novel state of affairs.
I additionally repeated a query concerning the affect of an expansionary financial coverage on rates of interest. As soon as once more, it assumed that rates of interest would fall, which is a mistake made by many economists. Extra worrisome is its declare that inflation expectations would additionally fall:
