Per capita GDP relative to 1st quarter of recent administration:
Determine 1: GDP relative to 2021Q1 (blue), and GDP 4 years in the past relative to 2017Q1 (orange), in logs. 2024Q1 worth is GDPNow implied stage based mostly on 3/19 launch and GDP estimate as of three/21. Supply: BEA 2023Q4 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, and writer’s calculations.
The cumulative development is comparable, though if nowcasts and forecasts maintain up, they’ll quickly diverge.
And by way of development charges, they’re fairly intently matched.
Determine 2: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), and lagged 208 weeks (orange), each in %. Supply: NY Fed by way of FRED.
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