Together with month-to-month GDP out in the present day from S&P World Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP:
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (daring blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/3/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
S&P GMI notes:
Month-to-month GDP rose 0.4% in July following a flat studying in June that was revised decrease by 0.2 proportion level. The rise in July was totally (and roughly equally) accounted for by will increase in private consumption expenditures and nonresidential fastened funding. Exterior of those parts, a bounce in nonfarm stock funding in July was roughly offset by a decline in internet exports.
Therefore, even taking actually the preliminary benchmark (see this submit concerning why you won’t wish to), July indicators will not be suggestive of a recession beginning in July (protecting in thoughts all collection will likely be additional revised over time).
GDPNow for Q3 now at 2%, down from 2.5% on 8/30. 2% continues to be pattern development, so I’d be loath to say the downturn is right here in Q3.
Determine 3: GDP as reported (daring black), GDPNow as of 9/3 (blue sq.), GDP median forecast from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (chartreuse line), GDO (tan), GDP+ (inexperienced), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ calculated by iterating GDP+ development charges on 2019Q4 GDP stage. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed (SPF 8/9), Philadelphia Fed (GDP+ 8/29), and creator’s calculations.
