Enterprise Cycle Indicators: February Private Revenue, Consumption, and January Mfg/Commerce Trade Gross sales

Plus third launch of 2023Q3 GDP.

Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (daring blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (teal), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, third launch (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q4 2nd launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (3/1/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.

Consumption confirmed power exceeding consensus, whereas private earnings ex-transfers fell. January manufacturing and commerce gross sales fell considerably in January. Mixed with lackluster industrial manufacturing for February, one may see a slowdown in progress.

That being stated, the upward revision in This autumn GDP, together with measures of combination demand (closing gross sales, and closing gross sales to non-public home purchasers) suggests a whole lot of momentum in financial exercise.