Industrial manufacturing continues to rise, whereas February month-to-month GDP erased January’s decline.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, third launch (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q4 third launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (4/1/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
Be aware that GDPNow as of 4/16 is 2.9% q/q AR, whereas the Lewis-Mertens-Inventory/NY Fed Weekly Financial Indicator stands at 2.01% for the week ending 4/13. The Baumiester, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index (WECI) is at -0.39%, which — if development progress is 2% — implies 1.61% progress.
