CFNAI and state-level coincident indices counsel softening in exercise.
Determine 1: CFNAI diffusion index (blue, left scale), and coincident index diffusion index for 3 month adjustments (tan, proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Chicago Fed through FRED, and Philadelphia Fed, NBER.
Observe that CFNAI diffusion index studying of -0.17 is above the -0.35 threshold for recession.
