Bloomberg factors out eggs had been massive within the PPI, accounting for 80% of the y/y rise (egg costs spiking attributable to avian flu). I questioned what eggs accounted for within the meals at dwelling element of the CPI.
Didn’t have the CPI subcomponent for eggs useful, so I took the BLS not-seasonally-adjusted value of a dozen giant grade A eggs, seasonally adjusted utilizing shifting (geometric) common and decomposed the CPI-food at dwelling cumulative enhance since January 2024.
Determine 1: CPI-food at dwelling (s.a.), contribution from eggs (brown bar), contribution from rest-of-food-at-home (blue bar), calculated utilizing log variations. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
This means food-at-home (aka “groceries”) can be fairly near flat in 2024 had been it not for eggs.
Calculations:
- 2023 weight for eggs in CPI: 0.178%
- 2023 CPI-food at dwelling weight in CPI: 8.072%
- Implied 2023 weight of eggs in CPI-food at dwelling: 2.205%
For comparability, weight of eggs in PPI (closing demand): 0.07%
Right here’re shopper costs for a dozen eggs vs. PPI (closing demand) for giant eggs.
Determine 2: Dozen giant eggs (blue, left log scale), and PPI (closing demand) giant eggs (tan, proper log scale), each normalized to 1980M01=1. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, BLS, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
