Optimistic NFP employment shock.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 second launch, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/1/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
As famous in earlier posts, put nearly all weight on the CES collection, in assessing enterprise cycle fluctuations.
Listed here are varied employment collection:
Determine 2: NFP employment (blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (tan), CPS collection adjusted to NFP idea (inexperienced), Enterprise Employment Dynamics implied employment primarily based on 2019Q4 stage of NFP (pink), and mixture hours (pink), all seasonally adjusted, in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, through FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
I’d downplay the CPS adjusted collection, given the problems with inhabitants controls. The Enterprise Employment Dynamics collection provides pause, even whereas the Philly Fed early benchmark suggests continued progress, by means of December.
Addendum:
Listed here are a few different indicators, which have some indicative report: heavy truck gross sales, and the Sahm rule index.
Determine 3: Heavy truck gross sales, s.a., in logs 2023M04=0 (black, left scale), and Actual Time Sahm Rule index, % (blue, proper scale), and 0.5% threshold (horizontal pink line). Supply: BEA through FRED, FRED, and creator’s calculations.
One ought to take the Sahm rule measure as an conjunctural, fairly than predictive, indicator. By this measure, we had not entered a recession as of Could 2024.
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