Video right this moment.
55% of People imagine they’re in a recession.
Why? As a result of they’ve been in a single.
Most indicators counsel in any other case.
Listed here are a few of Hovde’s predictions from December 2023:
- Financial Slowdown: The U.S. is more likely to enter a recession, with shoppers anticipated to deplete their financial savings, resulting in just one doubtlessly optimistic GDP quarter in 2024.
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- Inventory Market and Bond Market: The inventory market is projected to expertise a 15% sell-off inside the subsequent six months, adopted by a reasonable rally when charge cuts start. The bond market, after three consecutive down years, is predicted to see optimistic progress in 2024.
- Housing Market: Housing costs may decline by as much as 10%, however restricted stock ought to present some resilience.
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Right here is plot of the S&P500 and what the S&P500 must be in June to match Hovde’s prediction.
Determine 2: S&P500 (daring black), and Hovde’s prediction (purple sq.). Could commentary is thru sixteenth of Could. Supply: FRED, and writer’s calculations.
Lastly, what in regards to the housing market? The ten% value decline is for 2024, so I assume the ten% decline is off December’s stage.
Determine 3: S&P Case Shiller 20 Metropolis home value index, s.a. (daring black), and Hovde’s prediction (purple sq.). Supply: FRED and writer’s calculations.
