Forecast finalized in November (roughly identical time as CBO’s projections, launched in February).
First, GDP:
Determine 1: GDP (black), Administration forecast (purple squares), CBO projection (tan), February Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue), GDPNow of March 7 (mild inexperienced sq.), all in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges of GDP in Administration and GDPNow calculated utilizing development charges and ranges of GDP accessible at time of forecast/nowcast. Supply: BEA 2023Q4 2nd launch, CBO (February), Philadelphia Fed (February), OMB (March), and Atlanta Fed (March 7), and writer’s calculations.
Given the same info units accessible at early November when the 2 forecasts have been generated, it’s not shocking the Administration and CBO have an analogous outlook on GDP, even taking the truth that CBO’s projection is conditioned on present regulation, and the Administration’s is conditioned on the President’s price range. In truth, the Administration’s GDP forecast is just about indistinguishable from the November SPF for 2023 and 2024.
Each the CBO and the Administration forecast greater 10 yr Treasury yields than economists within the SPF. (The Administration trajectory is a quadratic interpolation to quarterly information, for the reason that Funds solely experiences annual yields.)
Determine 2: Ten yr Treasury yields (black), Administration forecast (purple line), CBO projection (tan), February Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue), all in %. 2024Q1 precise yield is predicated on January and February information. Administration quarterly forecasts interpolated from annual information utilizing quadratic match. Supply: Treasury through FRED, CBO (February), Philadelphia Fed (February), OMB (March), and writer’s calculations.
Right here’s the desk summarizing the forecasts.
Supply: OMB (2024).
