With This autumn third launch, we’ve an estimate of GDO, along with GDP.
Determine 1: prime panel, GDP (blue), GDO (inexperienced), GDP+ (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Be aware GDP+ relies on degree of GDP in 2019Q4, GDPNow as of three/29 (sky blue sq.). backside panel; closing gross sales (blue, left scale), closing gross sales to personal home purchasers (tan, scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Supply: BEA 2023Q4 third launch, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and writer’s calculations.
GDP progress is 3.4% (SAAR), GDO is 4.1%, and closing gross sales to personal home purchasers — typically taken to be the perfect predictor of mixture demand — is 3.3%. GDPNow for 2024Q1 is 2.3%, whereas the nowcast of the NY Fed is 1.9% (each as of three/29).
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