Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, however many use the core PCE as a proxy. I present what the information point out, together with the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast as of three/14 for February.
Determine 1: Core PCE deflator year-on-year inflation (blue), and instantaneous per Eeckhout (2023), at annual charges. February 2024 remark is Cleveland Fed nowcast as of three/15. Crimson dashed line at 2%. Supply: BEA, Cleveland Fed (3/15), NBER and creator’s calculations.
Taking the instantaneous measure, we’re a proportion level and a half above goal, whereas the q/q measure is 1.2 ppts.
