On December 21, 2024, my pal Dan Klein, an economics professor at George Mason College, despatched out an e mail to an inventory that I’m now not on however cc:ed me, with the next provide:
Anybody wish to give me 8:1 odds that on Jan 21 Trump gained’t have been inaugurated?
He linked to this submit on X. I didn’t even trouble clicking on the hyperlink as a result of these odds regarded good to me. We went backwards and forwards a number of instances. I anxious about issues like intense storms that may sluggish it down by a day, and Dan was fairly gracious in making the deadline midnight on January 21.
So I provided $800 in opposition to his $100 and he accepted. We each hoped that I might win.
I did win, and Dan has already knowledgeable me that he has despatched the verify. He gave me permission to submit on this.
Would I’ve provided 20:1 odds? No. Plenty of issues may have gone incorrect. Trump may have been assassinated—he missed one try by turning his head. He may have been shot however not killed and laid up unconscious in mattress. Dan’s fear, which I now know by having clicked on the X file (pun meant), is that the Democrats would have found out a approach to sluggish it down. I believed that to be extremely unlikely. Regardless of the purpose for a delay, you may most likely see why each Dan and I hoped I might win.
By the best way, I’ve not often had something good to say about Kamala Harris. However I believed she confirmed super grace in overseeing the reporting of the electoral faculty votes on January 6.
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