Forecast errors from finish of final 12 months are primarily zero.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Shopper Expectations (gentle inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Skilled Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and NBER.
Who was over-estimating inflation a 12 months in the past?
Determine 2: Forecast errors from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), NY Fed Survey of Shopper Expectations (gentle inexperienced), Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Skilled Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed , NBER and creator’s calculations.
Whereas the SPF and Cleveland Fed measures underpredicted inflation by means of 2021-22, they’re about on observe as of November/December. In distinction, the family measures overpredicted inflation.
