Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
Determine 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (daring blue), PCE deflator (tan), and PPI (inexperienced). PCE statement for March is nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023). Supply: BLS, BEA, through FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 4/11/2024), and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for core CPI (daring blue), core PCE deflator (tan), and core PPI (inexperienced). PCE statement for March is nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023). Supply: BLS, BEA, through FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 4/11/2024), and writer’s calculations.
Be aware that instantaneous core CPI has flattened out, whereas each core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined. Nonetheless, nowcasted instantaneous core PCE at 2.9% in March stays above the two% goal.
