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Novo Nordisk’s shares fell sharply on Friday as disappointing outcomes from exams of its newest weight problems drug wiped about €90bn off the valuation of Europe’s largest firm by market capitalisation.
CagriSema helped sufferers lose a median of twenty-two.7 per cent of their physique weight in a late-stage trial, Novo Nordisk stated on Friday, solely marginally beating the outcomes of Mounjaro, a rival remedy from Eli Lilly.
Novo Nordisk had focused a median of 25 per cent weight reduction from its new drug.
Martin Holst Lange, the corporate’s government vice-president for growth, stated that solely 57 per cent of sufferers had obtained the very best dose of the drug. “We’re inspired by the weight-loss profile of CagriSema,” he stated.
The drugmaker’s shares had been down as a lot as 27 per cent in mid-morning buying and selling in Denmark earlier than mounting a partial restoration to commerce 20 per cent decrease.
Barclays analyst Emily Subject stated the market was having an “emotional response” to Novo Nordisk not hitting the 25 per cent weight reduction bar that it had set.
“There could also be a administration credibility challenge, in a means, of not assembly this bar,” she stated.
Subject added that the corporate had informed her it was dissatisfied and was attempting to work out why so many sufferers had not taken the very best dose of the drug. It could possibly be due to side-effects or just that they had been content material with the quantity of weight that they had been dropping, she stated.
Novo Nordisk is planning a brand new trial within the first half of 2025 to discover the right way to enhance the doses and create the potential for extra weight reduction.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are competing for dominance in a market that grew sevenfold in simply three years to $24bn in 2023, in response to knowledge analytics agency Iqvia.
The load loss and diabetes medication Wegovy and Ozempic have reworked the fortunes of Novo Nordisk, main it greater than triple in worth prior to now 5 years. Barclays had beforehand modelled $49bn in peak gross sales for CagriSema, in 2038, nearly double its gross sales forecast for Ozempic and Wegovy in 2025, their peak 12 months.
However earlier than the trial knowledge was printed, some traders nervous that Novo Nordisk’s valuation was unsustainably excessive and that the broader weight problems medication market won’t be as worthwhile as anticipated.
Some have questioned whether or not US president-elect Donald Trump’s administration will make the market more durable for weight reduction medication.
Robert F Kennedy Jr, Trump’s nominee for well being secretary, has been vital of utilizing medication, slightly than altering weight-reduction plan, to regulate weight problems.
Novo Nordisk had hoped its “subsequent technology” weight-loss drug could lead on the sector, after its shares had struggled to maintain tempo with Eli Lilly and it suffered a setback from disappointing outcomes for an experimental weight-loss tablet in September.
“CagriSema is admittedly essential for us,” chief government Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen informed the Monetary Instances in November. “It’s a next-generation product and it has the potential to be greatest in school.”
Sufferers receiving Mounjaro, additionally known as Zepbound within the US, misplaced a median of twenty-two.5 per cent of their weight in part 3 trials when taken as a part of a regime of improved weight-reduction plan and train. These on Wegovy, additionally made by Novo Nordisk, misplaced a median of about 15 per cent in comparable circumstances.
About 40 per cent of sufferers within the CagriSema trial achieved 25 per cent weight reduction over the 68 weeks.
CagriSema combines semaglutide, the lively ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, with cagrilintide, one other hormone that makes folks really feel fuller for longer.
The trial of three,417 folks taking a weekly injection discovered that the commonest unwanted side effects had been gastrointestinal, the overwhelming majority of which had been gentle and reasonable and diminished over time.
Novo Nordisk expects to file for regulatory approval for the drug in direction of the tip of subsequent 12 months.
Shares in rivals bounced, with Eli Lilly up as a lot as 10 per cent in pre-market buying and selling, and biotechs with potential weight problems medication within the pipeline, corresponding to Viking Therapeutics, additionally rising.
Further reporting by George Steer in London
