Are we at full employment? Listed here are some estimates:
Determine 1: Output hole, from CBO (blue), from OECD (tan), from IMF (inexperienced), from Fleischman/Roberts-FRB (purple), all in % of potential GDP. NBER outlined recession dates shaded grey. Supply: CBO February 2024, OECD November 2023, IMF October 2023, Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility February 2024, NBER.
Larger frequency estimates can be found for the CBO and one model of the FRB hole collection:
Determine 2: Output hole, from CBO (blue), from Fleischman/Roberts-FRB (purple), each in % of potential GDP. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: CBO February 2024, Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility February 2024, NBER.
Apparently, post-pandemic this explicit FRB measure has been persistently larger than the CBO measure — till 2023Q4. (Notice that the members of the FOMC aren’t all going to depend on this particular measure.)
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