“The Poll is Stronger than the Bullet,” So Let the Video games Start!

“Which is it going to be, that’s all? The conspiracy or the f*ck-up?” –John LeCarré, The Honorable Schoolboy

Not that I’m jaded. Or cynical. In any case, the citation within the headline isn’t from Lincoln, like so many different quotes from Lincoln that aren’t[1]; that was the catchphrase that got here handy with “poll” in it. In any case, let’s hope it’s true, provenance apart.

If the legitimacy of election 2024 is to be contested, by both (any) Occasion, balloting points and claims are more likely to determine largely within the discourse, and in no matter measures every occasion takes, as they did in 2000, 2004, 2016 (within the electoral faculty), and 2020 [2]. On this submit, I can’t look in any element at present ballot-related authorized challenges; the numbers exceed my capability, so it makes extra sense to see what shakes out. In any case, many if not most of them are frivolous (and that goes twofold, threefold, tenfold for unauthenticated — “Look! A truck! By the facet of the highway!” — movies on the Twitter. When “citizen journalism” truly turns into journalism, that’s gonna be nice, however we’re so not there but).

As an alternative, to assist understanding the debacle I devoutly hope won’t occur on Election Day and days following, I’ll first have a look at the inordinate complexity (therefore vulnerabilty) of our balloting techniques; there’s quite lots of it. I’ll then take a cursory, swift have a look at present controversies in swing states. I’ll conclude with the hope that if there is a debacle, we’ll be taught from it _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fats probability!}

Complexities and Vulnerabilities of our Balloting System

First, let’s verify in with the spooks, beginning with a helpful Diagram from the Division of Homeland Safety:

Let’s not consider this as only a diagram; let’s consider it — because the spooks most likely do — as a map of assault surfaces, which I’ve helpfully highlighted. On the backside of the diagram, highlighted in yellow, we now have conventional (non-digital) strategies, all of which had been executed in Ohio 2004: “tools” (which may be concentrated in favored precincts, thinned out in disfavored ones, or fail altogether, relying), “voting places” (ditto), “opening and shutting polls” (ditto), “processing votes” (sluggish or quick, relying), and “publishing unofficial outcomes” (as FOX did in Florida 2000, inflicting Gore to concede, although he later unconceded). On the high of the diagram, in pink, I’ve underlined trendy (digital) strategies: on-line registration, voting machines, optical scan voting ballots, DRE machines, Optical Scans, Electronic mail, Fax, “Electronically,” and audits (as a result of IIRC some audits merely include working the ballots by means of a scanning machine as a second time.

Previous use of conventional assault surfaces proves that, irrespective of how reliable the overwhelming majority of election employees are, wrongdoing nonetheless occurs (“If males had been angels, no authorities could be crucial”).

For digital assault surfaces, suffice to day that digital = hackable, by definition (Edgers Dijkstra: “Program testing can be utilized to indicate the presence of bugs, however by no means to indicate their absence”, a bug being a possible assault floor for a foul actor. Ken Thompson: “The ethical is apparent. You may’t belief code that you just didn’t completely create your self. (Particularly code from corporations that make use of individuals like me.)”[3]

Now let’s have a look at the Brennan Heart (extra right here), who guarantee us that every thing is hunky-dory:

Since 2020, the nation’s electoral equipment has upgraded its tools, tightened its procedures, improved its audits, and hardened its defenses in opposition to subversion by dangerous actors, international or home. Poll tabulators [but not voting machines?] are air-gapped from the Web [how about USB sticks] and .

Let’s cease proper there. By “voter-verified paper information” the Brennan Heart implies that the voting machine prints out a paper poll (in essence, a receipt) in order that the voter can “confirm” a print-out in opposition to the alternatives they made on display screen. There are two difficulties with this. First, many individuals merely belief the machine and don’t do the verify in any respect (do you fastidiously confirm each receipt you’re given?). That opens the way in which for a stochastic course of the place some altered votes slip by means of as a consequence of a hacked system. There are two further issues, relying on the structure used. (1) If, as within the VSAP system utilized in Los Angeles, the voting machine transmits outcomes digitally to the poll counter, after which, in parallel, prints out a receipt for the voter, the actual poll is the digital transmission, not the paper receipt. The 2 don’t must match, the voting machine might have been hacked, and so there isn’t any verification in any respect. (2) If the voting machine prints out a receipt after which, in sequence, the receipt is scanned by a digital poll counter, that merely strikes the digital assault floor to the poll counter.

Evidently, I don’t discover that underlined sentence from the Brennan Heart a confidence builder. However let’s go on:

On the coronary heart of that system are nonpartisan election officers on the federal, state, county, and native stage who’re devoted to delivering a free and honest election. Ballot employees will confirm the identification and registration of each one who casts a poll, in individual or by mail. When polls shut on Election Day, sooner in some states, election employees will start tabulating early and mail-in ballots and in-person votes, normally on [hackable] scanning machines. As they proceed, officers will safe counted ballots, compile the outcomes from the [hackable] tabulation machines, and save worksheets and (for 98% of votes forged[4]) paper information for official and public evaluation. Your complete process is overseen by ballot watchers from each events.

I yield to no one in my admiration for the church girls who fastidiously cross my identify off the registration checklist, hand me my paper poll, after which give me my “I voted” sticker (and I feel hassling them is admittedly vile, and may cease). That mentioned, the important thing subject isn’t how the system operates on the entire and on the typical. In an election that (virtually) universally anticipated to be shut, only some insiders in just a few precincts in among the seven swing states are required to hack the end result (and you may guess that there are “black hats” whose very costly enterprise it’s to know these insiders, these precincts, these states, and, after all, the hack. And only a few of them go up in small planes). And at last:

No human enterprise that spans tens of hundreds of polling locations, a whole bunch of hundreds of election officers, and greater than 150 million projected voters can aspire to be flawless, says , a former Military intelligence officer who directs the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company (CISA). “There could possibly be a ransomware assault on an election workplace,” Easterly says. “There could possibly be a distributed denial of service assault on an internet site, so you’ll be able to’t see election-night reporting. Any individual will overlook their key to a polling place, so they may open late. A storm could carry down an influence line, so a polling place must be moved.”

(We’ll see in a second how disingenuous the Brennan Heart is, describing CISA’s Easterly as “former Military intelligence officer.” The New Yorker performed the identical trick with FMIC’s Jessica Brandt). I additionally yield to no one in my admiration for election employees usually, and in my frustration on the huge variety of human errors that get blown up into malfeasance on social media, usually with out attestation. Extra:

What issues, she says, is that election officers have educated for all these contingencies. “They’re ready to satisfy the second and to take care of any disruption,” she says. Easterly and her state counterparts play this message of reassurance on repeat, interview after interview and speech after speech. It has the advantage of being true. they’ve ever seen occur to an election, and none of these dangerous issues pose a real menace to the integrity of the vote.

“Each dangerous factor”? No. Apart from one. Are you able to guess? Take a second:

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes ? (“Who watches the watchers“, Juvenal, c. 100 AD).

100AD, what could be… 2024 – 100 = 1924 years in the past. That’s so much! And Jen Easterly “was deployed to Baghdad as chief of the cryptologic companies group for the Nationwide Safety Company. She additionally labored for NSA’s elite Tailor-made Entry Operations,” the “hacking unit” uncovered by Edward Snowden, that infiltrated computer systems around the globe. Clearly, if there’s a “watcher” who, sporting a White Hat, is provided to guard all these digital assault surfaces, it’s Jen Easterly. Equally clearly, if there’s a watcher who, sporting a Black Hat, is provided to hack them, it’s also Jen Easterly[5]. That might be a Unhealthy Factor. And but hacking, on the whole, goes unmentioned each by the Brennan Heart and Easterly. Odd!

Now, I might by no means attribute means (***cough*** Tailor-made Entry ***cough***), alternative (***cough*** CISA directorship ***cough***), or motive (***cough*** Orange Hitler ***cough***) to Easterly with none proof. However I don’t must. We’re speaking techniques, not individuals. The precept to bear in mind right here is Akerlof and Shiller’s “Phishing Equilibrium” (see NC right here, right here, and right here), which I summarize as: “If fraud can occur, it would have already got occurred.” The identical precept applies within the well-known joke concerning the two economists strolling down the road. One spots a twenty greenback invoice mendacity on the street, and bends to select it up. The opposite stops him, saying “If that twenty had been actual, anyone would already have picked it up.” Each digital assault floor could possibly be that actual twenty greenback invoice. The purpose of election safety, subsequently, shouldn’t be to create a three-ring binder with a web page for each contingency — besides, naturally, for Black Hat insider assaults, as a result of who is aware of, we’d want them some day — however to simplify the system so the variety of assault surfaces is as minimal as doable. Why depart twenty greenback payments on the road?

And talking of twenty bucks mendacity on the street, right here’s a tweet from Marc Elias, Democrat election lawyer extraordinaire and the cut-out by means of whom the Clinton marketing campaign laundered its funds to spook Christopher Steele, of file fame. Democracy Docket is Elias’s web site:

The Harris marketing campaign has a billion {dollars} and counting, until they’re mendacity. Are they paying Elias in such meagre coin that he’s acquired to hit up the rubes? With that, let’s flip to the Swing States.

Current Balloting Points in Swing States

Let me caveat as soon as extra that I make no try and be exhaustive; the tweets that comply with are merely the newest Swing State-related froth from my Twitter timeline. Nonetheless, readers, when you reside in any of those seven states and have anecdotes or hyperlinks you want to share in feedback, please accomplish that!

Arizona

Curing ballots:

Swell, if it’s non-partisan, which this clearly isn’t.

Georgia

“Georgia choose says voters can hand in mail ballots in rejection of GOP lawsuit” [FOX]. “A choose in Georgia on Saturday dismissed a Republican lawsuit that sought to dam voters from hand-returning mail-in ballots within the state over the weekend…. A Fulton County spokesperson mentioned on Saturday afternoon that solely a pair dozen ballots had been returned to the 4 open county places of work.” • To me, the identical as above. Commentary:

Georgia choose says voters can hand in mail ballots in rejection of GOP lawsuit

Right here we come go once more!
Final minute modifications in voting guidelines by Democrat
supportive Judges.
It additionally occurred in 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.

https://t.co/iF8gogd43U

— Thomas G (@Thomasguam) November 3, 2024

I perceive the purpose about last-minute rule modifications, however I see this as an issue of not with the ability to decide all the sting circumstances in an absurdly advanced system, quite than as malfeasance.

“Republicans rating victory in Georgia struggle over election observers, RNC chairman says” [FOX]. “Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger mentioned on X, ‘We’re happy that Fulton County has applied our requirement permitting displays within the spirit of Georgia legislation. However we’re involved that this was ever a query within the first place.’ The alleged exclusion of ballot watchers from the weekend absentee poll submission hours was not restricted to simply the GOP. It included all observers, Republicans mentioned. An RNC spokesperson advised Fox Information Digital having public ballot observers by means of the weekend benefited each Republicans and Democrats however argued their absence would damage the GOP extra in left-leaning areas. The spokesperson mentioned the RNC labored with Georgia election officers to safe entry for ballot observers.” • Ballot watchers are good, until and till they morph right into a “bourgeois riot,” as in Miami 2000, or related ranges of officiousness.

Michigan

“Spreadsheet exhibiting Michigan voter information isn’t proof of election fraud” [WTSP]. “Current social media posts alleging election fraud in Michigan have gone viral as tens of millions of Individuals forged their ballots. The posts present a spreadsheet with Wayne County, Michigan, addresses and voter ID numbers. Within the picture, a highlighted voter ID column seems to indicate the identical ID assigned to a number of addressees, suggesting one individual has forged a number of votes…. The picture isn’t proof that any particular person in Wayne County, Michigan, forged a number of votes. A formatting error within the state’s voter registration database mistakenly made it appear like individuals voted a number of instances, Michigan election officers and Republican Nationwide Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump confirmed. The error has since been corrected and every voter listed within the report solely voted as soon as within the election, officers mentioned.” • Commentary:

Our election integrity staff obtained studies of hundreds of duplicate ballots in Michigan.

We instantly investigated and have CONFIRMED that it was a glitch within the system – these duplicates weren’t and WILL NOT BE COUNTED.

We’re on it and defending the vote! https://t.co/F73rzmsBRL

— Lara Trump (@LaraLeaTrump) October 30, 2024

Nevada

“Nevada’s excessive court docket permits counting of mail-in ballots with out postmarks” [Politico]. “The Nevada Supreme Court docket has turned down a bid by Donald Trump’s marketing campaign to dam state officers from counting mail-in ballots that lack postmarks however arrive inside three days after Election Day… The court docket’s majority mentioned adopting the GOP place might disenfranchise some voters by means of no fault of their very own. The ruling impacts solely a small variety of ballots that arrive by mail however lack postmarks as a consequence of what the bulk known as ‘random postal service omissions.’” • The choice seems nice to me — readers? — when you settle for the proposition that mail-in ballots shold be normalized, and if certainly the omissions are random (“small” isn’t related. The margins are small!)

North Carolina

Poll selfies:

AGAIN, PLEASE.. CHECK TO SEE IF RECORDING, TAKING A PICTURE WITH YOUR BALLOT IS LEGAL IN YOUR STATE! It’s unlawful IN NORTH CAROLINA to do a “poll selfie” or recording and may be trigger for invalidation..

I DON’T WANT ANY JUSTIFICATION FOR INVALIDATION, PLEASE CHECK YOUR STATE.

— Olli on the Clock Store (@llhall2) October 21, 2024

“Election Day Voting Tools by County” [North Carolina State Board of Elections]. That is a powerful piece of labor:

Word, nevertheless, that the ADA poll marking is finished digital, and I can not discover what the usual is for voting on paper vs. voting on machine.

Pennsylvania

“Supreme Court docket guidelines Pennsylvania could rely back-up votes when mail ballots are rejected” [CNN]. “The US Supreme Court docket on Friday left in place a Pennsylvania court docket ruling that’s anticipated to develop choices for voters whose mail-in ballots are rejected for technical causes to have their votes counted, in a defeat for Republicans in a important battleground state. There have been no famous dissents. For Pennsylvania voters who made a mistake in how they ready their mail-in ballots, it might guarantee they’ve a backup choice to have a provisional poll counted…. It’s unclear what number of Pennsylvania voters will profit as a result of not each county notifies voters of faulty mail ballots. However each side within the enchantment earlier than the Supreme Court docket characterised the dispute as affecting doubtlessly “hundreds” of votes at a minimal…. Completely different counties in Pennsylvania have totally different procedures for coping with faulty mail ballots, some extra forgiving than others. That patchwork of guidelines makes it troublesome to say with certainty what number of ballots had been at stake within the case.” • Appears to be like like a multitude.

Wisconsin

“Professional-Trump ballot watchers primed for Election Day motion in key state” [Reuters]. “Many native officers concern the activist motion at election websites, whereas restricted, was merely a rehearsal for a a lot larger-scale occasion on Nov. 5, when Republican Trump goes up in opposition to Democrat Kamala Harris within the struggle for the White Home. ‘It was completely a dry run for the overall election,’ Glendale’s Democratic Mayor Bryan Kennedy advised Reuters, including that police had been known as to 2 polling stations by election employees and ordered two observers to depart, when it was determined the poll challenges had been with out foundation. ‘They had been difficult each absentee poll with no matter cause they may pull out of skinny air,’ Kennedy mentioned. With days to go till the presidential vote, opinion polling reveals the election is on a knife-edge, with few locations as pivotal as Wisconsin.” • 1000’s of Marc Elias mini-mes? What a prospect. After which there’s this:

MAGA Wisconsin Election Fee director Kimberly Zapata discovered responsible on all felony counts for falsifying navy ballots. She might face 5 years in jail pic.twitter.com/p1nwgR52Yj

— KamallaDreams (@KamalaDreams) October 31, 2024

Life’s wealthy pageant!

Conclusion

In fact, as I urged right here (“The Organs of State Safety Concerned in Authenticating Election 2024 (or Not)“, and again in 2016, right here (“Federalist 68, the Electoral School, and Faithless Electors“) the over-riding subject, the change in our Constitutional order, comes from placing the spooks answerable for authenticating our elections. What occurs, to invent a not-entirely-implausible state of affairs, if Trump wins due to a ten,000-vote margin in Pennsylvania, however an nameless leak to the New York Occasions on “The Day After” claims these 10,000 votes had been the results of a hack? After which, after per week or so of hysteria, it seems that the supply of the leak is Jen Easterly, late of NSA’s Tailor-made Entry Operations, who assures us it’s all true, actually, however can’t reveal intelligence sources and strategies? Granted, that is rank hypothesis. However do we would like a system the place such hypothesis is even doable? As a result of that’s the balloting system we now have.

* * *

The apparent resolution is to have elections which can be validated by residents, not spooks (as I wrote in “What “Our Democracy” Ought to Look Like When Voting: A Easy Plan). In essence: Ballots must be hand-marked on paper and counted in public. All voting ought to happen on the identical day. Election Day must be a nationwide vacation (with rather more element within the submit). Maintain it easy, silly!

Take digital out of the equation, you are taking the spooks out of the equation, and also you save the Constitutional order. What’s to not like?

NOTES

[1] Quote.org reveals that Lincoln used this “bullet”/”poll” antithesis quite a few instances — and no surprise — however “The poll is stronger than the bullet” has no cite. Hilariously, Google’s different, “To present victory to the appropriate, not bloody bullets, however peaceable ballots solely, are crucial,” has no cite both. “Ballots are the rightful and peaceable successors to bullets,” implying the civilization advances, comes from Lincoln’s Message to Congress, July 7, 1861.

[2] It appears to me possible that Democrats, within the occasion of a Trump victory, wouldn’t make the primary thrust of their assault inside the judicial department, given the composition of the Supreme Court docket; see right here. Republicans would possibly nicely accomplish that, given the identical givens.

[3] Some of the offensive butcheries of Trump’s farcical butchery of the 2020 election challenges — which can have turned paper ballots right into a partisan subject, setting it again by a technology, good job Don — was his failure to demand voting machine supply code. How on earth can we even start to comprehend it’s safe with out inspecting it?

[4] With election margins as skinny as they’re, that 98% determine appears a bit of sus.

[5] Are we actually to consider that the NSA’s Tailor-made Entry Operations unit has not hacked voting machines in Colour Revolutions overseas? Heck, what good are they in the event that they haven’t? However who watches the watchers to verify these hacks don’t go home? Particularly when “President Hitler” might undoubtedly be framed as a nationwide safety subject, say by a “thirty-five 12 months nationwide safety professional“?