Some information, as President Biden visits (CNN):
Macro indicators:
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by nationwide chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (pink), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and creator’s calculations.
Most indicators are transferring upwards as of newest obtainable information. Civilian employment is the one one trending sideways; nevertheless, this divergence has additionally occurred on the nationwide degree, and is probably going largely attributable to underestimates of the inhabitants.
The unemployment fee in Wisconsin is about 0.8 ppts beneath that nationwide.
Determine 2: Unemployment fee in Wisconsin (blue), in US (black), each in %. Supply: BLS.
That is about the identical share level distinction that one finds on common, so one might infer that Wisconsin is about doing the identical, cyclically talking, because the nation total.
Actual wages at the moment are larger than on the NBER peak at 2020M02.
Determine 3: Wisconsin common hourly earnings in $ (blue), in 2023$ (tan). Deflation utilizing chained CPI. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates for US shaded grey.
The deflation is applied utilizing chained CPI. The actual wage remains to be larger than at NBER peak utilizing the official CPI measure.
Lastly, the CNN article notes the issues relating to inflation. Whereas we don’t have information for Wisconsin inflation, we do have that information for East North Central subregion, which encompasses Wisconsin.
Determine 4: Cumulative CPI enhance since January 2021 in East North Central (blue), in US (black). East North Central seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13. Calculations utilizing logs. Supply: BLS, and creator’s calculations.
Cumulative inflation is about the identical in East North Central as within the nation total (though as famous elsewhere, East North Central meals inflation relative to total is barely larger).
Lastly, on the next frequency observe, the Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, and Sims Weekly Financial Situations Indicator (ECI) signifies that for the week ending April 27, 2024, Wisconsin is rising 1 ppts sooner than pattern, whereas the US total is rising 0.29 ppts slower than pattern.
