The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace course of continues to wrestle because of the latter’s insistence on a “hall” by means of Armenia and the previous’s stance that the West act as mediator within the talks.
Whereas Azerbaijan needs to start out direct negotiations with Armenia, the latter insists on holding them with the involvement of Western governments – one thing Azerbiajani President Ilham Aliyev now not has any curiosity in. Aliyev just lately refused to fulfill his Armenian counterpart, Nikol Pashinyan, in Granada and Brussels, citing perceived bias towards Azerbaijan within the trio format.
Paris is the most important challenge for Baku, which claims that the method was “hijacked by France.”Azerbaijani officers particularly resent France’s sending of weapons to Armenia, which makes it unattainable for Paris to be an sincere peace dealer.
Germany can be reportedly dangling a bunch of cash to entice Yerevan to take anti-Russia steps, akin to purging the federal government and armed forces of anybody harboring pleasant views in direction of Moscow. Berlin, already struggling financially, would possibly wish to rethink its provide because the tab would possibly get run up rapidly contemplating there could be fairly a couple of Russia-friendly people in authorities contemplating the 2 nations’ lengthy historical past.
“Sadly, in Europe there have additionally been those that have all the time fueled revanchism and Armenian nationalism,” Deputy Overseas Minister of Italy Edmondo Cirielli admitted just lately in an interview with the Italian publication Formiche.
France, which is the house to the most important Armenian diaspora neighborhood in Europe, is taking part in that position in the meanwhile, in response to Azerbaijan.
“France is the nation that arms Armenia, offers them help, trains their troopers, and prepares them for an additional conflict,” Aliyev advised native media in January 2024. If exterior events should be concerned, Baku proposes a broader “3+3” framework, involving Russia, Iran, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.
Zangezur
Other than Armenia insisting on EU involvement, the primary roadblock to any deal between Baku and Yerevan stays the Zangezur Hall – a transportation connection between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave wedged between Armenia, Turkiye, and Iran.
On January 10, Aliyev said that, if this hall stays closed, Azerbaijan refuses to open its border with Armenia anyplace else.
The nine-point ceasefire settlement signed underneath Russian mediation that ended the 2020 conflict included a stipulation that Armenia is answerable for guaranteeing the safety of transport hyperlinks between the western areas of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, facilitating the unhindered motion of residents, autos and cargo in each instructions. Azerbaijan and Turkiye have latched onto that time, insisting they’ve the correct to arrange transportation hyperlinks by means of southern Armenia.
Baku needs journey of individuals and cargo between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan to be freed from inspection and customs and expects Yerevan to conform to the deployment of Russian border guards alongside the hall.
Moscow agrees with the deployment of its border guards, even when it doesn’t see eye to eye on the customs challenge (it needs the Russians to conduct the safety checks. On January 18, Russian Overseas Minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned the next:
“Armenia is having issue opening the route as specified by the trilateral assertion. Yerevan is placing ahead further safety necessities for the route. It doesn’t need Russian border guards to be there, although that is written within the assertion that bears Pashinyan’s signature. He doesn’t wish to see non-aligned customs and border management. He needs Armenia to run it, which contradicts the settlement.”
Lavrov additionally criticized Western interference, which he faulted for holding up the implementation of the agreements. He’s not incorrect.
Because the Caucasus sit on the key crossroads of East-West and North-South transportation routes, any alteration to its ecosystem would have far-reaching penalties. Due to this fact the Armenia-Azerbaijan standoff over Zangezur is drawing in exterior actors from close to and much, together with Iran, India, the EU, Russia, Israel, and naturally, Uncle Sam.
Exterior Actors Make Peace Extra Elusive?
The scenario can be troublesome sufficient to resolve in good instances, however with the present breakdown into East-West camps, it’s turning into near unattainable attributable to exterior actors.
Simply to recap:
Towards the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict and the brand new Chilly Battle, mediating nations started to compete for the standing of the primary moderator of the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations.
Yerevan started to favor the West, and talks principally moved to Western platforms. It was throughout these conferences that Armenia agreed to formally acknowledge Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan.
As soon as Armenia did so (and PM Pashinyan declared so publicly), the die was forged. The area was (and is) acknowledged as Azerbaijani territory by the worldwide neighborhood however was overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Armenians. Roughly 100,000 of them fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan blockaded the area for months after which moved militarily to claim management in September – an operation that resulted in a whole lot of deaths.
Regardless of transferring the negotiation course of underneath the steering of the West and publicly recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, the Pashinyan authorities has sought to put all of the blame for its loss on the ft of Russia. And Pashinyan now largely refuses to take part in summits with Russia.
Baku, regardless of assuming management of Nagorno-Karabakh underneath the steering of the western course of, now needs to disinvite the West from the method. Why is that?
A spread of possible prospects embrace some mixture of the next:
- The heavy handed involvement of the French who started rising navy help for Armenia final 12 months.
- Baku was being requested to make concessions in different areas, nearly definitely having to do with Russia. Azerbaijani officers determined this was not of their curiosity and/or Moscow utilized stress. (Baku and Moscow share robust ties. In simply the vitality sector, Russian corporations’ giant investments within the Azerbaijani oil and fuel sector make it one of many larger beneficiaries of Brussels’ efforts to extend vitality imports from Azerbaijan with a purpose to substitute Russian provides. Azerbaijan can be importing extra Russian fuel itself with a purpose to meet its obligations to Europe.)
- The West was utilizing the method as a technique to transfer Armenia squarely into the Western camp, an end result that no nation within the Caucasus needs.
- It makes zero sense for the West to play such an integral position as a result of its options may not take note of (or might actively go towards) the pursuits of different nations with main stakes within the end result, primarily Iran and Russia.
It might appear that Azerbaijan is refusing to play its position within the West’s try to direct the play. For instance, when the brand new US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, was swiftly dispatched to the nation in December, considered one of his first actions was to go to the Alley of Martyrs devoted to these killed by the Soviet Military throughout Black January 1990. Azerbaijanis weren’t falling for it.
And now the West has reverted to hardball ways.
France is already upping its navy help for Armenia, sending 50 Arquus Bastion armored personnel carriers, Thales-made GM 200 radars, and Mistral 3 air protection programs. There are additionally discussions to ship CAESAR self-propelled howitzers.
The US State Division signaled that it’ll pause the supply of all navy help to Azerbaijan. USAID, nonetheless, is turning into extra lively within the area, and media campaigns are revving up towards the federal government in Baku. Azerbaijan simply ended its engagement with the Parliamentary Meeting of the Council of Europe after it started criticizing Azerbaijan’s home affairs and made allegations of ethnic cleaning in Nagorno-Karabakh. Final month, the US put Azerbaijan on its watchlist on spiritual freedom.
These efforts are prone to show fruitless as Aliyev has the complete help of Türkiye, in addition to Russia, and easily doesn’t want the West to get extra out of the present scenario. And the US, by butting into the method, has helped Azerbaijan and Iran put apart their variations in an effort to maintain the Individuals out.
Speaking Peace, Making ready for Battle
Whereas Armenia ups its navy spending, getting weapons from France and India, Azerbaijan additionally stays in preparation mode. Aliyev just lately mentioned the next:
“The method of constructing our military will proceed. Armenia ought to know that regardless of what number of weapons it buys, regardless of how it’s supported, any supply of menace to us will likely be instantly destroyed. I’m not hiding this, in order that tomorrow nobody will say that one thing surprising has occurred.”
Regardless of the latest enhance from Paris, Armenia continues to be thought-about to be at an obstacle. That has lengthy been the story, largely due to its geography. That reality and the lengthy shadow of the Armenian genocide feed into Armenian nationalism that has arguably solely worsened the nation’s predicament within the post-USSR years.
A number of the extra hardcore nationalists based a gaggle known as ASALA (Armenian Secret Military of the Liberation of Armenia) in 1975. Amongst its objectives to drive Türkiye to acknowledge the 1915 occasions as genocide, pay beneficiant compensations to the Armenian victims and their households, and cede territory to Armenia. To realize these objectives, ASALA killed dozens of Turkish officers within the 70s and 80s. (Türkiye had its personal paramilitary forces concentrating on ANSALA). This extra radical pressure of Armenian nationalism was additionally turned towards the USSR, together with 1977 explosions in Moscow that killed seven folks.
Following the USSR collapse, Azerbaijan joined the nationalists’ enemy record and had been equated with Turks as the 2 new nations fought over their border and Nagorno-Karabakh. Though Armenia gained management of the territory, it got here at a excessive price.
Yerevan had no different selection however to completely embrace Russia as safety guarantor. The Armenian democratic motion didn’t view Moscow as a pal, but it surely wanted protectorate standing with a purpose to guarantee victory.
So Armenia emerged from the battle with the Nagorno-Karabakh exclave (internationally acknowledged as Azerbaijan territory), principally surrounded by enemies, and reliant on Russia for cover (it’s additionally reliant on Russia economically). This has solely served to extend Armenia’s isolation ever since.
Over the previous twenty years Armenia discovered itself remoted from the most important infrastructural tasks within the area, such because the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum fuel pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, in addition to many extra worldwide initiatives promoted by the Türkiye-Georgia-Azerbaijan triangle.
The identical dynamic is prone to taking part in out right this moment with rising transportation hyperlinks. An absolute nightmare state of affairs for Armenia is that Azerbaijan and Türkiye open the Zangezur hall by drive, thus excluding Armenia. If Yerevan is banking on the West saving them, they could possibly be upset. A extra practical hope is that Iran prevents such a state of affairs attributable to its worry of getting its connection to the north severed by a Turkish-Azerbaijani line. But when Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Iran, and most critically Russia resolve that that is one of the best path ahead, that’s what will occur whatever the West’s objections – and one motive it might occur is Yerevan’s inviting of the West into the area.
It was beforehand standard knowledge that the worry of such an end result and Yerevan’s reliance on Moscow for cover meant it couldn’t flip West, however that was upended final 12 months when PM Pashinyan started to undertake the gambit whereas nonetheless at odds with Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
Pashinyan could be attempting to alter that, however at what price?
On January 19, he known as for a brand new structure, which might get rid of sure hurdles to signing a peace treaty with Baku as the present structure incorporates territorial claims towards Azerbaijan, in addition to Türkiye.
Any such effort is certain to obtain important opposition from extra nationalist forces in Armenia already reeling from the lack of Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan has managed to deflect a lot of the blame for that debacle onto Russia. Would he achieve success twice?
Following Ukraine Down A Harmful Path
There are broad-strokes parallels with the pre-war path of Ukraine and the one Armenia is now on.
Each nations had been previously a part of the USSR and maintained robust (albeit sophisticated) ties with Russia after independence. Each nations skilled a seesawing between the West and Russia. For instance, in 2013, the Armenian authorities was making ready the affiliation settlement with the EU, however on the final second refused to signal it and as an alternative joined the Russia-led Eurasian Financial Union (from which Armenia is now slowly exiting).
In each nations, sure factions within the authorities develop into satisfied that Russia is the supply of their issues and/or that they have to reorient their nation in direction of the West rapidly and in any respect prices. And perhaps most concerningly is the presence in each nations of figures held up in some quarters as nationwide heroes: Stepan Bandera in Ukraine and Garegin Nzhdeh in Armenia.
Each additionally occurred to be Nazi collaborators throughout World Battle Two.
Final month, Russia condemned a miniscule march of neo-Nazis that befell in Yerevan on Jan 1.
The gathering was small, but it surely’s fascinating to notice that the chief of the group, Hosank, is Hayk Nazaryan, a 34-year-old Armenian-American born and raised in California. He graduated from California State College with a grasp’s diploma in physics and moved to Armenia in 2016. A part of the group’s ideology is that Armenia is being become a Russian province, and the one technique to stop it’s to develop into a nation-army.
So one can perceive Moscow being cautious of such a small gathering, particularly in gentle of how Bandera turned a determine sure forces rallied round in Ukraine, and there now seems to be an increase in anti-Russian fascist attitudes from the Balkans to the Caucasus. It’s additionally not the primary time Moscow has criticized Armenia’s celebration of the Nazi collaborator. Again in 2017, the hostess of a program on Russia’s TV Zvezda, a station affiliated with the ministry of protection, mentioned the next a few statue of Nzhdeh erected in Yerevan:
“The affiliation with the European Union just isn’t the one factor Armenia is doing like Ukraine — it’s troublesome to imagine, however Yerevan is also valorizing fascist collaborators.”
She additionally referred to Nzhdeh as “Armenia’s Bandera” and in contrast the insignia of the ruling Republican Occasion of Armenia to that of the Nazi Third Reich. You be the choose:
TV Zvezda later apologized. However even present Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan admitted again in 2019 earlier than his flip to the West that the limitless veneration of Nzhdeh is a part of an effort to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia.
The date of the neo-Nazi march in Yerevan additionally occurred to happen on the birthday of Nzhdeh. These days, monuments are erected to him, and streets, squares, academic establishments, and strategic facilities named after him.
On the danger of being overly temporary, right here is Nzhdeh’s story:
Over a interval of a long time, he fought all Armenia’s foes, together with Ottoman Türkiye and early Soviet Russia. When World Battle Two broke out, Nzhdeh threw his lot in with the Third Reich, providing Germany his help and offering proof that the Armenians had been an Aryan folks. He aligned Armenian fighters with Germany towards the Soviet Military and made positive the Armenian legion adopted the orders of the Nazis within the Caucasus, Crimea and France. He was arrested by Soviet authorities and died in captivity in 1955.
Does his later collaboration with Nazis tarnish his earlier work preventing for Armenian independence? Not within the eyes of many Armenians. The argument goes that he was a patriot of the Armenian nation who struggled for Armenia’s independence all his life and allied with the Nazis to additional that objective.
The factor is, it’s an argument that could possibly be averted altogether as there are already different Armenian liberation fighters and statesmen who’re nationwide heroes, akin to Common Andranik (who doesn’t come with out his personal baggage but in addition didn’t ally himself with Nazi ideology).
It’s not an ideal comparability, however would it not be all that dissimilar to France these days erecting monuments to Marshal Philippe Pétain who was a nationwide hero of WWI solely to move the Vichy puppet authorities, put in place by the Nazis throughout the sequel? (The final Rue Pétain disappeared in 2011.)
The hazard for Armenia now, following the lack of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is seen domestically as a humiliating defeat to Azerbaijan, and the next blame being positioned on Russia for that loss, is that this ideology of anti-Russian and Nzhdeh veneration spirals uncontrolled. As Armenian-American historian Ronald Grigor Suny mentioned again in 2017:
All post-Soviet nations are rewriting their historical past in the meanwhile. Those that had been heroes at the moment are enemies; former enemies, even fascists, at the moment are heroes. That is taking place within the Baltics, and in Armenia. Some individuals who collaborated with the Nazis, akin to Garegin Nzhdeh, at the moment are thought-about heroes. And the individuals who murdered Jews in Latvia and Lithuania are now not denounced, as they had been throughout the communist period. So this can be a sophisticated subject, and historians should work independently of the state and the federal government to create actual histories, not nationwide mythology.
In some ways, it’s becoming that Nzhdeh is taking part in a job from the grave in right this moment’s brewing battle. He’s credited in Armenia for his efforts in securing Zangezur by main rebels towards Turks and Soviets in 1920.
Just a little greater than a century later, and the scenario is actually again at first. Armenia, particularly the southern a part of the nation, is on the middle of worldwide competitors. EU, Russian, and US flags are flying, Iran opened a consulate there final 12 months, and the French are contemplating doing the identical. The names may need modified, however the geography stays the identical: it’s a very powerful route by means of the Caucasus in all instructions.
