I used to be taking a uncommon trip journey (most journey is figure associated for me), when my spouse and I made a decision to enter the haunted home at Tivoli for kicks (final go to, it’d been closed to renovate the wax museum to one thing new). Effectively, it wasn’t horrifying in any respect – however that bought me considering: What could be horrifying? Right here’s my reply:
“Financial Coverage in a second Trump time period”
Think about some coverage proposals:
“It’s actually not possible for tariffs to completely substitute revenue taxes. Tariff charges must be implausibly excessive on such a small base of imports to switch the revenue tax, and as tax charges rose, the bottom itself would shrink as imports fall, making Trump’s $2 trillion purpose unattainable.”
And I haven’t even thought of…
Good dialogue right here about how Trump’s insurance policies would make the inflation/output tradeoff a real nightmare.
Only a reminder, right here’s the US commerce steadiness outlined utilizing NIPA knowledge.
Determine 1: US Internet Exports to GDP (blue), s.a. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA 2024Q1 2nd launch, and creator’s calculations.
And by way of coverage uncertainty (which conservatives used to decry as slowing funding and development):
Determine 2: Financial Coverage Uncertainty (blue, left scale), and Commerce Coverage Uncertainty (tan, proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: policyuncertainty.com through FRED, NBER.
