Now that December numbers (launched by DWD as we speak) destroy the thesis that half of year-to-date cumulative employment is accounted for by authorities jobs? Right here’s Michael Lucas’ graph operating up by November, from this text:
Supply: Lucas (2024).
Right here is my cumulative progress graph, decomposed into personal and authorities elements, for revised information operating up by December.
Determine 1: Cumulative change in complete nonfarm payroll employment (black line), personal nonfarm payroll employment (inexperienced bar), in authorities employment (orange bar), since 2024M01, in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS, DWD, and writer’s calculations.
By my counting, by December 79% of employment progress since 2021M01 is accounted by personal jobs.
Classes: (1) Don’t impute an excessive amount of to a single statement (2) beware of knowledge revisions. I’m simply grateful this time round Mr. Lucas realized that it’s hazardous to have a look at first variations in seasonally unadjusted numbers (in comparison with this publish).
