NFP and personal NFP up (though under current peaks), whereas civilian employment rises.
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries, deflated by nationwide chained CPI (mild blue), GDP (purple), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, DWD, BEA, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Because the civilian employment sequence relies on a a lot smaller pattern (on the state degree), it’s best to depend on the institution sequence. Right here NFP are trending sideways relative to mid-2024 ranges.
Right here’s how nonfarm payroll employment compares to the August Dept of Income forecast:
Determine 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and Wisconsin DoR Financial Outlook forecast of August (tan), each in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS, DWD, DoR.
